"Greece and Turkey in NATO, no open war": assessed the possible scenario of Russia's deterrence against Ukraine
Political expert and military officer Oleksandr Musiyenko commented on the published transcripts of Putin's conversation with Bush and assessed whether Russia's long-standing desire to join NATO could be used against it, as reported by Politeka.
He shared his thoughts in his blog.
"Since 2001, Putin has shown active engagement and a desire to cooperate with the USA and NATO. By the way, I want to remind you that there were more cooperation programs between Russia and NATO than between Ukraine and NATO. We only had the 'Partnership for Peace' program, which was created for the countries of the former USSR, whereas Russia had much more. It actively cooperated with the USA. For example, Russia almost immediately agreed to allow the US to use its airspace for flights of US Air Force planes to Central Asia as part of the operation against Saddam Hussein. There were cooperation programs, joint exercises, development – there was a lot," says Oleksandr Musiyenko.
Then, he notes, Putin proposed bringing Russia into NATO. Bush considered this an interesting offer, but no decision was made, and thus, Russia launched a campaign against the Alliance. However, the expert recalls, Putin's long-time assistant, Surkov, wrote an article about the Global North about a year and a half or two years ago, arguing that Russia, the USA, and the Northern European countries should jointly oppose China. According to him, one could raise the question that Russia could join NATO after regime change, conducting reforms, and also withdrawing its troops from Ukraine, paying reparations, and guaranteeing no repeat of aggression.
"Ukraine first in NATO, and then, over time, Russia. And so we would be like Turkey and Greece. There would be constant tension, and we would spend more on defense than our NATO neighbors because we would never trust Russia, even if it could be in NATO. Relations would be strained; they can't be normal after all the crimes Russia has committed. But here's Greece and Turkey in NATO, and there's no open war," explains Oleksandr Musiyenko.
If that's the case, he asserts, then Putin should remember these statements of his, even though he already claimed back then that Ukraine is an artificial state. However, the expert emphasizes, it would be possible to force him to recognize Ukraine as a condition for joining NATO, and this might ease some tension, but for now, it's only a theory.
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