IMF downgrades global economic growth forecast: what awaits Ukraine

This year, global GDP will grow by only 2.8%, and in 2026 – by 3%. For comparison, in 2024 this figure was 3.3%, and the average level for 2000-2019 was 3.7%.

The reasons for the deterioration in expectations were changes in government policy priorities, as well as a new wave of tariff restrictions, in particular, from the United States. The consequences of this create a serious negative shock to global growth. Due to the instability of the trading environment, the IMF published not a baseline, but a “reference” forecast, which provides alternative scenarios depending on further changes in trade policy.

According to the IMF, a way out of the crisis is possible only if international cooperation is strengthened, debt restructuring, an agreed trade policy, and the preservation of macroeconomic stability in individual countries.

The forecast for Ukraine remains unchanged: GDP growth is expected at 2% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026.

The intensification of the trade war and the intensification of uncertainty in trade policy may further complicate both short-term and long-term growth prospects. A reduction in international cooperation may jeopardize progress towards a more sustainable world economy.

At this critical stage, countries must work constructively to create a stable and predictable trading environment and promote international cooperation, while simultaneously eliminating policy gaps and structural imbalances within the country. This will help ensure both internal and external economic stability.

Source: imf.org.

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