National Bank Forecasts Difficult Years Ahead for Ukraine: Experts Highlight Main Risks

The period of rapid economic recovery in Ukraine, following the sharp collapse caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion, has ended.

Without large-scale investments or a mass return of migrants, GDP growth over the next few years will be around 4% per year. This is stated in the National Bank’s Inflation Report for April 2025.

"Accordingly, real GDP has approached its potential level, so the pace of its growth over the forecast horizon will be moderate and will only accelerate in the event of large-scale investment projects or a rapid return of migrants to the country," the document states.

At the same time, the National Bank points out that the main risk to this forecast is the nature and duration of the war, which will affect both investments and migration.

"The ongoing war generates risks of a further decline in economic potential, particularly due to losses of people, territories, and industries, which limits opportunities for rapid economic growth," the report notes.

Currently, negative migration trends persist, as the intensity of shelling across Ukraine and terrorist attacks against civilians is increasing. Therefore, it is expected that net outward migration will continue. A gradual return of Ukrainian migrants is expected only after a significant reduction in security risks.

According to the National Bank’s forecasts, net migration outflow in 2025 will be about 0.2 million people, with refugees beginning to gradually return to Ukraine starting from 2026 (about 0.2 million people), and this process is expected to accelerate in 2027 (around 0.5 million people).

Source: National Bank’s Inflation Report.

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