When will the war in Ukraine end: IMF updates forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its economic forecast for Ukraine, taking into account the baseline scenario, according to which the war will end by the end of 2025.

The relevant data are provided in the April World Economic Outlook report.

The fund's analysts predict a gradual increase in Ukraine's population, which will be due to the return of some refugees home after the war ends.

Thus, in 2025, the country's population may grow to 32.9 million people, in 2026 - to 33.4 million, and from 2027 to 2029 the figure will stabilize at about 34 million. In 2030, a slight decrease is forecast - to 33.9 million people.

In addition to demographic changes, the IMF also predicts positive developments in the economy. The unemployment rate is expected to gradually decrease: in 2025 it will be 11.5%, in 2026 it will decrease to 10.1%, and in 2029 it will reach 8.5%.

The report also emphasizes the promising growth of gross domestic product: our country's GDP in 2025 may exceed 200 billion US dollars, and by 2030 it may grow to almost 284 billion dollars.

As a reminder, the IMF previously noted that hostilities may end in the last months of 2025. The document states that although geopolitical risks remain high, the end of the war will allow the country's economy to develop at a faster pace.

Source: World Economic Outlook.

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