An Agreement with the U.S. Might Be Quite Sufficient to Obtain Real Security Guarantees – Expert Opinion

Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik explained that the U.S. is unlikely to protect its allies unless there is economic benefit, and Ukraine can provide such benefit by signing a resource agreement, according to Politeka.

He shared this in his blog.

"The Ukrainian negotiation team has already signed a preliminary memorandum. Frankly speaking, it means nothing. The parties have essentially returned to the original model of negotiations: first, a memorandum of intent, and only then a full agreement. It's just one page long. Yulia Svyrydenko and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signed this agreement. And the most important thing in this memorandum is April 26, 2025 – the potential date for signing the actual agreement," Bortnik noted.

He explained that there is currently a struggle within the Western world for access to Ukraine's natural resources, as the U.S., France, and the U.K. all believe they should play a key role in this matter.

In addition, the expert said, there is a rivalry between Russia and the U.S., since the Kremlin is not satisfied with a scenario where it only gets 20% – i.e., the occupied territories. However, he suggested that just because Moscow is not satisfied does not mean it will protest. No, they may agree, but only in exchange for concessions – such as the lifting of sanctions. At the same time, Bortnik pointed out, the U.S. efforts to keep Ukraine within the Western sphere of influence remain underestimated.

"Instead of demanding virtual security guarantees like NATO and Article 5, this agreement with the U.S. might be quite sufficient to obtain real security guarantees in the form of American interests. For example, is there any certainty that the U.S. would defend Estonia? Yes? No? It's unclear, there is no such certainty. But if the U.S. has serious economic interests in Ukraine, then it's likely that the U.S. would defend Ukraine, even if it's not a NATO member," Bortnik concluded.

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